There are several betting strategies. However, according to experts, the main thing in this is how much the player is operating with. That is, it is important to decide not on what to bet on, but on how much of your own funds you are willing to risk.
As noted by the famous mathematician John Kelly Jr., who developed the formula for placing bets, a correctly selected strategy of the game brings the desired result only in 25-30% of cases. It turns out that success depends little on her. But the correct method, in the opinion of the mathematician, of placing bets brings the required result in 2/3 or even 3/4 of the cases.
The above formula gives only a general idea of the rules of conduct. For a more detailed understanding of the process, you will need to delve into this issue. In particular, the effectiveness of several strategies needs to be considered. The graph below reflects the success of 5 methods of placing 500 bets. The figure below shows the performance of the selected systems with a 55% win probability on a binary basis. The schedule was drawn taking into account that the initial bet was $ 100, and the game began from the moment the pot reached $ 1000. The simulation of the situation continued until the player reached the specified limit or lost all the money.
Judging by the graph, one of the chosen strategies brings the maximum income. But another system allows you to quickly win. Each of these strategies is described in more detail below.
Maximum bets per game
By playing for the entire available amount, you can quickly get the maximum possible income. This betting method is considered high risk. If the wrong choice was made, the player loses all funds. That is, you can lose the bank immediately.
A conservative strategy assuming that the player bets a certain amount each time. If we go back to the above example, then its amount is $ 100. The main advantage of this approach is that by making fixed bets, the user reduces the likelihood of losing all the money at his disposal. But this is the main drawback of the system. If the player does not change the amount of the bet, then the total amount of the win will slowly increase.
This method is used by aggressive traders in the financial markets. The essence of the strategy boils down to the fact that in case of loss, the size of the next bet is doubled. This approach makes it possible to compensate for the losses incurred earlier. Compared to the previous system, the Martingale method provides a faster increase in the total profit. However, you can follow the described strategy if you have a sufficient supply of money. This is due to the fact that in the case of constantly repeated losses, the moment will come when you will have to bet a large amount to compensate for all previous losses.
Another system that came from the financial markets. The essence of the strategy is the same as described in the section with the Martingale method. The difference between these systems boils down to the fact that in this case the size of the subsequent bet must be increased according to the Fibonacci sequence (by 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, and so on). The advantages and disadvantages of this method are the same as those of the Martingale method. But such a strategy, unlike the previous one, allows you to reduce the amount for each subsequent bet.
This method uses the Kelly criterion, which calculates the size of the bet by dividing the probability of a certain event occurring by the odds. To understand the essence of the strategy, you can return to the above example. Based on it, it turns out that the size of the bet should be $ 100 (the probability of an event occurring is 10%, the coefficient is 1). Taking into account the fact that 1000 dollars are stored in the bank, in the end the indicated amount comes out.
In the future, the size of the bet increases or decreases. Let’s say the first one worked. The bank now holds $ 1,100. The next bet, according to the terms of the described method, will require $ 110 (10% * 1100).
Best Betting Strategy
To choose the best strategy, you need to decide on goals. If you need to stay in the game as long as possible, then the proportional betting method will be the best. Let’s say the user only has $ 100 at their disposal. Having bet 10% of them, he saves $ 90 in case of a loss. For the next bet, the user uses $ 9 and so on.
If the game is played with the aim of getting fast and maximum income, then you need to use the first strategy. By constantly betting the entire amount, the user can immediately make a profit, which, when applying other strategies, is available after at least 7 moves. But this option is the most dangerous: if he loses, he loses all the money he has. Moreover, the longer the user stays in the game, the more likely the loss is.
Fibonacci and Martingale strategies are effective in the initial stages. But over time, if several bets that follow bring losses, both systems can lead to the fact that the bank is empty. Let’s say the player acts as described in the example. Applying the Martingale method, he must deposit 403 thousand dollars to the 11th bet (provided that the previous ones turned out to be unprofitable). At the same time, he had only $ 6300 in the bank. According to the Fibonacci strategy, the loss would be less. At the 11th rate, 33.5 thousand dollars would have to be deposited, while the bank had 4100 dollars left.
Only 2 systems allow you to save your money during a long game. These are proportional and fixed rate methods. The latter provides slow but steady growth. In particular, under the conditions of the considered example for round R83, $ 3,400 is kept in the bank, and with the subsequent losing bet, its size is reduced to $ 2,300. Until then, the user remains in the game. However, having made 95 bets, he earns a relatively small income.
The latter system gives the worst result. Applying the proportional betting method, the pot size after 11 losses is reduced from $ 7359 to $ 2,286. However, if the player constantly deposits the same amount, then by the 500th bet his income will be $ 6400. That is, in this case, the latter system becomes more efficient. Using the proportional betting method, the user earns $ 18,275 by the end of the game.
How to choose a strategy
The above example took into account that the advantage in the game was always on the side of the user. Other factors that could affect the final result were not considered. This means that there is no perfect betting strategy. The previously applied Kelly criterion calculation strategy is effective only in relation to the given example. But in practice, it is equally important to take into account the many accompanying circumstances, including the method of playing the game, which is most suitable for a particular user.
It should also be borne in mind that the Kelly criterion calculation strategy gives a result if the probability of the occurrence of events is known. Without this information, the system is ineffective.