In one of our recent articles, we have already talked about who tipsters are and whether it is wise to trust their predictions when placing bets. Today is the continuation of that material.
Often, sellers of sports predictions, otherwise called tipsters, promise super-profits to those clients who are ready to part with their “hard-earned” and follow their advice. Most often, ordinary fraudsters do this, passing off wishful thinking, but sometimes really honest specialists in this matter, as they say, inflate themselves, and deliberately inflate people’s expectations. So how can you tell a professional from a swindler?
Many players, both beginners and experienced bettors, like to place bets on events, the bookmaker odds on the outcomes of which are close to 2.00, taking into account the margin. In other words, the probability of such an outcome is about 50%. This can be both bets on the “money line” market (for example, the victory of one of the teams in a match where a draw is impossible), and on the “totals” market (for example, the overall performance of a football match will be more or less than 2.5); a similar probability distribution can be found in other, less popular markets.
Student’s criterion as an assessment of the effectiveness of a tipster
For events, the probability of opposite outcomes for which is close to 50%, the so-called Student’s test is quite applicable, which determines the probability of an accidental win in a series of multiple coin tosses (and getting heads or tails, respectively). This criterion helps to compare the player’s actual winnings with the theoretically expected (considering only randomness) in the conditions of the betting market.
Obviously, the more the number of correct predictions given by the tipster, the higher the chances that you are a professional specialist. Whom do you prefer as the “ideological inspirer”, whose advice when choosing bets should be used – the one who correctly guessed 7 out of 10 predictions (that is, with 70% passability), or who out of 1000 predictions correctly predicted 600 (passability ” total »60%)? Moreover, in this case, the words “guessed” and “predicted” quite accurately reflect the true state of affairs.
If you are in doubt about the answer to this seemingly obvious question, imagine a coin toss situation. Agree, getting heads seven out of ten times is much more likely than the fact that heads fall 600 times in 1000 tosses, and the above-mentioned Student’s criterion just convinces us of this.
Thus, one of the criteria that will help you when choosing a tipster will be the positive statistics of his predictions over the long distance – and the longer it is, the better. It’s another matter how to make sure that these statistics are reliable, but that’s a topic for another article.
It’s hard to argue that the odds directly affect the probability of winning. At the same time, placing bets on teams with a lower probability of winning (that is, with higher quotes) is by definition more risky (given equal bet amounts), since in this case there is a high probability of chance.
In other words, the winnings on bets at the odds of 1.25 in the amount of 120% are much more indicative of the degree of professionalism of the player than the same winnings at the rate at the odds of about 5.00. Indeed, it is real to predict the victory, for example, of Levante over Barcelona in the Spanish Championship match, either a lucky guy or a person who knows some information that is not available to other betting market participants (which is almost impossible for matches of this level).
Therefore, comparing betting histories with only the percentage of winnings taken when evaluating tipsters is fundamentally the wrong tactic: you should always pay attention to the odds as well. It directly follows from this that if a tipster indicates in his statistics a long series of wins when betting on events with high odds (say, from 3.00), interspersed with single failures, you are almost certainly an ordinary swindler, simply cleverly manipulating the results.
So, we looked at two criteria that will help you when choosing a tipster – unless, of course, you do not trust your own experience, calculation and intuition. When comparing the betting histories of different tipsters, as we can see, it is not enough just to analyze the percentage of winnings. It is also necessary to study the history of winnings and the odds at which they were obtained.