Football is the kind of sport where the probability of a draw is the highest compared to other sports games. How to predict a draw correctly, we will tell you in our material.
First, a few statistical facts. Over the past ten seasons of the English Premier League (Premier League), approximately 26% of matches ended in a draw. In this case, the account options were distributed as follows:
- 1: 1 – 42%;
- 0: 0 – 32%;
- 2: 2 – 22%;
- 3: 3 and other accounts – 6%.
Obviously, most often a draw is possible in a match of approximately equal teams (for example, neighbors in the standings), but when predicting it, it is also important to take into account the factor of the home stadium.
So, if one of the leaders accepts on his field a team from the middle of the tournament table or even an underdog, the probability of a draw usually does not exceed 15%, but in a meeting of two teams from the “swamp” of the table it can reach 30% or even exceed this value.
Calculation of the probability of a draw in Premier League matches
Let’s simulate a situation when in a Premier League match there are approximately the same average level of play, and the expected number of goals in the match is 2.5 (that is, each team can score on average 1.25 goals into the opponent’s goal) .
If we apply the so-called Poisson distribution method, we determine that the probability that each of the clubs will score zero goals is 29%. To now determine the overall probability of a goalless draw 0: 0, we need to multiply the probability values: 0.29×0.29 = 0.08 (or 8%).
In the same way, you can determine the probabilities for other possible draws – for a 1: 1 score (the most common among draws) it will be 13%, and so on. In general, the probability of a tie for this match, which we calculate by adding all the probabilities determined, is about 27%. Here we do not take into account the small deviation of the Poisson distribution from the actual value.
Obviously, the less the initially predicted total number of goals in the match, the higher the probability of a draw in general. So, with an expected “total” of 2.2, the probability of a 0: 0 score will no longer be 8%, but 11%; the total probability of a draw will rise to 29%.
The conclusion from all of the above is this: to identify matches in which there is a high probability of a draw result, it is necessary to determine fights in which opponents of approximately equal strength meet, who are good in defense, but not too active in attack.
At the same time, do not forget that bookmakers also guess about this, to put it mildly, and put their quotes for such matches taking into account these circumstances.
Predicting a draw
In addition, it should be borne in mind that a team that has similar indicators in defense and attack is unlikely to be able to demonstrate them constantly, even during one single season, not to mention a longer period (although there are exceptions – remember, for example , Kazan “Rubin” of the times of Kurban Berdyev).
Stoke City, West Bromwich Albion and West Ham United have ended in a draw in the Premier League over the past few seasons, which tended to occupy the final places in the middle of the standings. On average, each of these clubs played 16 draws per season, while the figure for the rest of the teams did not exceed 10.
However, there have been seasons when the number of draws for the named clubs approached the standard indicator, therefore, the mechanical identification of those who like to “roll a draw” and predicting the results based on this fact alone will not bring betters success.
It is more important to understand what factors in each specific match can lead to a draw. We also advise you to take into account the last segments of the season (this is especially evident from the top championships in Serie A). when sometimes teams in need of glasses disperse. It is far from a fact that they agree with each other – it’s just that each of the teams deliberately cuts off the likelihood of risk, paying maximum attention to the safety of their own gates.