How often is a comeback possible when a 1-2 losing team ends up winning the match? The article analyzes such situations using the example of the English Premier League.
In one of our previous materials, we wrote about the fallacy of false judgments and ideas about the nature of an individual match, called the term “congitive distortion.” In simple terms, this would mean that the bettor, knowing that the team scored a large number of goals in the previous meeting, is inclined to believe that it is capable of repeating such a result in the next game. Or, for example, one team will beat another simply because it is several lines higher in the standings.
Another example of congitive distortion is the opinion among many players that a team can often win back from a 1: 2 score, and sometimes not just bring the match to a draw, but even win it. But remember that we should rely primarily on statistics, not intuition.
English Premier League comebacks
As you know, many goals are traditionally scored in the Premier League, and a 2: 1 score in a match is not uncommon there. So, in one of the recent seasons, such a score during the game arose in 132 matches (out of 380 played in total). Moreover, in 74 cases the home team was in the lead, and in 58 – the guests. Another statistical fact: 89 times the score 2: 1 became such after the score was 1: 1; in the remaining 43 cases, the team behind in the score 0: 2 won back one goal.
The minimum time spent by teams to establish such a score was 16 minutes, and the maximum – 94 minutes (main time plus four added minutes). Thus, the average time interval for establishing a 2: 1 score was 60 minutes. At the same time, in general, the level of the teams playing with this score was comparable.
The most common method used to model the outcome of a game or the remainder of a match is based on the Poisson distribution.
Analysis of situations with a score of 2: 1
We use Poisson’s model to calculate the final result of a team that slightly outperforms its opponent (taking into account the already mentioned advantage of the home team, who more often win in the course of the game with a score of 2: 1 in the first 60 minutes of the match). When applied, it can be predicted that in 75% of cases, the victory will remain with the team that leads in the score, in 20% of cases the match will end in a draw, and only 5% of the outcomes will be victorious for the team that was inferior in the score.
In fact, out of 132 matches in which the score was 2: 1 during the game, 101 ended up with victories for the leading team, 25 with draws, and only 6 with defeats. Converting this data into percentages, we get 76%, 19% and 5%, respectively – that is, almost an exact match with the results of the model we built.
Thus, the 1: 2 losing team has very few chances of a comeback, and it is not so often possible to level the score. Therefore, the assumption of a very high probability of wagering from such an account is incorrect.